Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.006804 0.007656 0.008575 0.009642 0.010847 0.012166 0.013720
2026-02-08 0.005439 0.006611 0.007979 0.009697 0.011798 0.014291 0.017479
2026-02-15 0.004604 0.005901 0.007498 0.009617 0.012358 0.015798 0.020455
2026-02-22 0.004128 0.005525 0.007324 0.009818 0.013199 0.017641 0.023949
2026-03-01 0.003578 0.004969 0.006828 0.009507 0.013284 0.018447 0.026086
2026-03-08 0.003179 0.004562 0.006475 0.009326 0.013491 0.019391 0.028449
2026-03-15 0.002830 0.004184 0.006114 0.009080 0.013557 0.020108 0.030510
2026-03-22 0.002687 0.004086 0.006137 0.009386 0.014441 0.022071 0.034582
2026-03-29 0.002532 0.003952 0.006091 0.009573 0.015147 0.023807 0.038443
2026-04-05 0.002401 0.003840 0.006064 0.009779 0.015890 0.025646 0.042614
2026-04-12 0.002217 0.003627 0.005859 0.009677 0.016116 0.026665 0.045508
2026-04-19 0.002070 0.003463 0.005714 0.009657 0.016470 0.027907 0.048870
2026-04-26 0.001908 0.003261 0.005498 0.009504 0.016595 0.028792 0.051727
2026-05-03 0.001799 0.003140 0.005405 0.009557 0.017080 0.030337 0.055908
2026-05-10 0.001678 0.002988 0.005248 0.009478 0.017318 0.031456 0.059393
2026-05-17 0.001612 0.002928 0.005246 0.009677 0.018074 0.033565 0.064924
2026-05-24 0.001477 0.002731 0.004982 0.009370 0.017857 0.033845 0.066935
2026-05-31 0.001372 0.002583 0.004796 0.009192 0.017867 0.034547 0.069828
2026-06-07 0.001268 0.002429 0.004586 0.008950 0.017729 0.034947 0.072136
2026-06-14 0.001242 0.002421 0.004651 0.009251 0.018693 0.037594 0.079324
2026-06-21 0.001203 0.002384 0.004658 0.009435 0.019430 0.039841 0.085864
2026-06-28 0.001168 0.002353 0.004675 0.009638 0.020222 0.042258 0.092989
2026-07-05 0.001102 0.002255 0.004549 0.009537 0.020362 0.043314 0.097191